第一性原理:埃隆·马斯克谈独立思考的力量

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First Principles: Elon Musk on the Power of Thinking for Yourself

第一性原理:埃隆·马斯克谈独立思考的力量

First principles thinking, which is sometimes called reasoning from first principles, is one of the most effective strategies you can employ for breaking down complicated problems and generating original solutions. It also might be the single best approach to learn how to think for yourself.

第一性原理思维,有时也称为基于第一性原理的推理,是分解复杂问题并生成原创解决方案的最有效策略之一。这也可能是学习如何独立思考的最佳方法。

The first principles approach has been used by many great thinkers including inventor Johannes Gutenberg, military strategist John Boyd, and the ancient philosopher Aristotle, but no one embodies the philosophy of first principles thinking more effectively than entrepreneur Elon Musk.

第一性原理的方法被许多伟大的思想家所采用,包括发明家约翰内斯·古腾堡、军事战略家约翰·博伊德以及古希腊哲学家亚里士多德,但没有人比企业家埃隆·马斯克更有效地体现这一思维哲学。

In 2002, Musk began his quest to send the first rocket to Mars—an idea that would eventually become the aerospace company SpaceX.

2002年,马斯克开始了他将火箭送上火星的探索,这一想法最终促成了航天公司SpaceX的诞生。

He ran into a major challenge right off the bat. After visiting a number of aerospace manufacturers around the world, Musk discovered the cost of purchasing a rocket was astronomical—up to $65 million. Given the high price, he began to rethink the problem.

一开始,他就遇到了一个重大挑战。在访问了世界各地的多家航天制造商后,马斯克发现购买一枚火箭的成本高得惊人——高达6500万美元。面对如此高昂的价格,他开始重新思考这个问题。

“I tend to approach things from a physics framework,” Musk said in an interview. “Physics teaches you to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. So I said, okay, let’s look at the first principles. What is a rocket made of? Aerospace-grade aluminum alloys, plus some titanium, copper, and carbon fiber. Then I asked, what is the value of those materials on the commodity market? It turned out that the materials cost of a rocket was around two percent of the typical price.”

“我倾向于从物理学的框架来处理事情,”马斯克在一次采访中说道。“物理学教你从第一性原理而不是类比推理。所以我说,好吧,让我们来看一下第一性原理。火箭是由什么组成的?航空级铝合金,还有一些钛、铜和碳纤维。然后我问,这些材料在大宗商品市场上的价值是多少?结果发现,火箭的材料成本大约是其典型价格的2%。”

Instead of buying a finished rocket for tens of millions, Musk decided to create his own company, purchase the raw materials for cheap, and build the rockets himself. SpaceX was born.

马斯克没有选择花数千万美元购买一枚成品火箭,而是决定自己创建公司,以低价购买原材料,然后亲自制造火箭。于是,SpaceX诞生了。

Within a few years, SpaceX had cut the price of launching a rocket by nearly 10x while still making a profit. Musk used first principles thinking to break the situation down to the fundamentals, bypass the high prices of the aerospace industry, and create a more effective solution.

在短短几年内,SpaceX将火箭发射的成本降低了近十倍,同时仍然保持盈利。马斯克运用第一性原理思维,将问题分解到基本要素,绕过航天工业的高昂价格,并创造了一个更为有效的解决方案。

First principles thinking is the act of boiling a process down to the fundamental parts that you know are true and building up from there. Let’s discuss how you can utilize first principles thinking in your life and work.

第一性原理思维是将一个过程简化为你明确知道的基本事实,然后从这些事实开始构建。让我们来探讨一下如何在生活和工作中运用第一性原理思维。


Defining First Principles Thinking

定义第一性原理思维

A first principle is a basic assumption that cannot be deduced any further. Over two thousand years ago, Aristotle defined a first principle as “the first basis from which a thing is known.”

第一性原理是一种无法再进一步推导的基本假设。两千多年前,亚里士多德将第一性原理定义为“事物得以认知的最初基础”。

First principles thinking is a fancy way of saying “think like a scientist.” Scientists don’t assume anything. They start with questions like, What are we absolutely sure is true? What has been proven?

第一性原理思维实际上就是“像科学家一样思考”的一种表达方式。科学家不会做任何假设,他们会从一些问题开始,比如:我们绝对确定的事实是什么?哪些已经被证明了?

In theory, first principles thinking requires you to dig deeper and deeper until you are left with only the foundational truths of a situation. Rene Descartes, the French philosopher and scientist, embraced this approach with a method now called Cartesian Doubt in which he would “systematically doubt everything he could possibly doubt until he was left with what he saw as purely indubitable truths.”

理论上,第一性原理思维要求你不断深入探究,直到只剩下某种情境中的基础性真理。法国哲学家兼科学家勒内·笛卡尔采用了这种方法,并将其称为“笛卡尔怀疑法”,即他会“系统地怀疑一切可以怀疑的事物,直到剩下他认为无可置疑的真理。”

In practice, you don’t have to simplify every problem down to the atomic level to get the benefits of first principles thinking. You just need to go one or two levels deeper than most people. Different solutions present themselves at different layers of abstraction. John Boyd, the famous fighter pilot and military strategist, created the following thought experiment which showcases how to use first principles thinking in a practical way.

在实际应用中,你不必将每个问题简化到原子级别才能获得第一性原理思维的好处。你只需比大多数人深入一两个层次即可。在不同的抽象层次上,会出现不同的解决方案。著名战斗机飞行员兼军事战略家约翰·博伊德设计了以下思维实验,以展示如何在实践中运用第一性原理思维。

Imagine you have three things:

A motorboat with a skier behind it

A military tank

A bicycle

想象一下你有三样东西:

一艘后面拖着滑水者的摩托艇  

一辆军用坦克  

一辆自行车

Now, let’s break these items down into their constituent parts:

Motorboat: motor, the hull of a boat, and a pair of skis.

Tank: metal treads, steel armor plates, and a gun.

Bicycle: handlebars, wheels, gears, and a seat.

现在,让我们将这些物品分解为它们的组成部分:

摩托艇:发动机、船体和一对滑水板。  

坦克:金属履带、钢制装甲板和一门炮。  

自行车:车把、车轮、齿轮和车座。

What can you create from these individual parts? One option is to make a snowmobile by combining the handlebars and seat from the bike, the metal treads from the tank, and the motor and skis from the boat.

从这些单独的部件中,你可以创造出什么呢?一种选择是将自行车的车把和座椅、坦克的金属履带、摩托艇的发动机和滑水板组合在一起,制造出一辆雪地摩托。

This is the process of first principles thinking in a nutshell. It is a cycle of breaking a situation down into the core pieces and then putting them all back together in a more effective way. Deconstruct then reconstruct.

这就是第一性原理思维的核心过程。它是一个将情境分解为核心部分,然后以更有效的方式重新组合的循环。先解构,再重构。


How First Principles Drive Innovation

第一性原理如何推动创新

The snowmobile example also highlights another hallmark of first principles thinking, which is the combination of ideas from seemingly unrelated fields. A tank and a bicycle appear to have nothing in common, but pieces of a tank and a bicycle can be combined to develop innovations like a snowmobile.

雪地摩托的例子还突出了第一性原理思维的另一个特征,即将看似无关的领域的想法结合起来。坦克和自行车表面上似乎毫无关系,但将坦克和自行车的部件结合起来,可以开发出像雪地摩托这样的创新产品。

Many of the most groundbreaking ideas in history have been a result of boiling things down to the first principles and then substituting a more effective solution for one of the key parts.

历史上许多最具突破性的创意都源于将事物简化为第一性原理,然后用更有效的解决方案替代关键部分。

For instance, Johannes Gutenberg combined the technology of a screw press—a device used for making wine—with movable type, paper, and ink to create the printing press. Movable type had been used for centuries, but Gutenberg was the first person to consider the constituent parts of the process and adapt technology from an entirely different field to make printing far more efficient. The result was a world-changing innovation and the widespread distribution of information for the first time in history.

例如,约翰内斯·古腾堡将用于酿酒的螺旋压机技术与活字、纸张和墨水相结合,创造了印刷机。虽然活字技术已经使用了几个世纪,但古腾堡是第一个考虑到这一过程的组成部分,并将完全不同领域的技术加以适应,从而使印刷变得更加高效的人。最终,这一创新改变了世界,并首次实现了信息的大规模传播。

The best solution is not where everyone is already looking.

最佳解决方案往往不在大家已经关注的地方。

First principles thinking helps you to cobble together information from different disciplines to create new ideas and innovations. You start by getting to the facts. Once you have a foundation of facts, you can make a plan to improve each little piece. This process naturally leads to exploring widely for better substitutes.

第一性原理思维帮助你将来自不同学科的信息拼凑在一起,创造出新的想法和创新。你首先要掌握事实。一旦你拥有了事实的基础,就可以制定计划来改进每一个小部分。这一过程自然会引导你广泛探索更好的替代方案。


The Challenge of Reasoning From First Principles

从第一性原理推理的挑战

First principles thinking can be easy to describe, but quite difficult to practice. One of the primary obstacles to first principles thinking is our tendency to optimize form rather than function. The story of the suitcase provides a perfect example.

第一性原理思维可能容易描述,但却很难实践。其主要障碍之一是我们倾向于优化形式而非功能。行李箱的故事就是一个完美的例子。

In ancient Rome, soldiers used leather messenger bags and satchels to carry food while riding across the countryside. At the same time, the Romans had many vehicles with wheels like chariots, carriages, and wagons. And yet, for thousands of years, nobody thought to combine the bag and the wheel. The first rolling suitcase wasn’t invented until 1970 when Bernard Sadow was hauling his luggage through an airport and saw a worker rolling a heavy machine on a wheeled skid.

在古罗马,士兵们使用皮革邮差包和肩包来携带食物,同时骑马穿越乡村。与此同时,罗马人拥有许多带轮子的交通工具,如战车、马车和货车。然而,几千年来,没人想到将包和轮子结合起来。直到1970年,伯纳德·萨多在机场拖运行李时看到一名工人用带轮的滑板滚动重型机器,才发明了第一个滚轮行李箱。

Throughout the 1800s and 1900s, leather bags were specialized for particular uses—backpacks for school, rucksacks for hiking, suitcases for travel. Zippers were added to bags in 1938. Nylon backpacks were first sold in 1967. Despite these improvements, the form of the bag remained largely the same. Innovators spent all of their time making slight iterations on the same theme.

在19世纪和20世纪,皮革包被专门化为不同的用途——书包用于上学,背包用于远足,行李箱用于旅行。1938年,拉链被加入到包中。1967年,尼龙背包首次上市。尽管有了这些改进,包的形态基本保持不变。创新者们都花费时间在同一个主题上进行微小的改进。

What looks like innovation is often an iteration of previous forms rather than an improvement of the core function. While everyone else was focused on how to build a better bag (form), Sadow considered how to store and move things more efficiently (function).

看似创新的东西往往是对先前形式的迭代,而不是对核心功能的改进。当其他人都专注于如何制造更好的包(形式)时,萨多则考虑了如何更高效地存储和移动物品(功能)。


How to Think for Yourself

如何独立思考

The human tendency for imitation is a common roadblock to first principles thinking. When most people envision the future, they project the current form forward rather than projecting the function forward and abandoning the form.

人们的模仿倾向是第一性原理思维的一个常见障碍。当大多数人设想未来时,他们往往是将当前的形式向前投射,而不是将功能向前投射并放弃形式。

For instance, when criticizing technological progress some people ask, “Where are the flying cars?”

确切地说,“一些人”在质疑技术进步时可能会问:“飞行汽车在哪里?”

Here’s the thing: We have flying cars. They’re called airplanes. People who ask this question are so focused on form (a flying object that looks like a car) that they overlook the function (transportation by flight). This is what Elon Musk is referring to when he says that people often “live life by analogy.”

问题在于:我们已经有飞行汽车了,它们叫做飞机。那些提出这个问题的人过于关注形式(像汽车一样的飞行物体),而忽视了功能(通过飞行进行运输)。这就是埃隆·马斯克所说的,人们常常“通过类比来生活”的意思。

Be wary of the ideas you inherit. Old conventions and previous forms are often accepted without question and, once accepted, they set a boundary around creativity.

警惕你继承的观念。旧的惯例和先前的形式常常被不加质疑地接受,一旦接受,它们就会为创造力设定边界。

This difference is one of the key distinctions between continuous improvement and first principles thinking. Continuous improvement tends to occur within the boundary set by the original vision. By comparison, first principles thinking requires you to abandon your allegiance to previous forms and put the function front and center. What are you trying to accomplish? What is the functional outcome you are looking to achieve?

这种差异是持续改进与第一性原理思维之间的关键区别之一。持续改进往往发生在原始愿景设定的边界内。相比之下,第一性原理思维要求你抛弃对旧形式的依赖,将功能置于核心位置。你想要实现什么目标?你希望达到的功能性结果是什么?

Optimize the function. Ignore the form. This is how you learn to think for yourself.

优化功能。忽视形式。这就是你学会独立思考的方式。


The Power of First Principles

第一性原理的力量

Ironically, perhaps the best way to develop cutting-edge ideas is to start by breaking things down to the fundamentals. Even if you aren’t trying to develop innovative ideas, understanding the first principles of your field is a smart use of your time. Without a firm grasp of the basics, there is little chance of mastering the details that make the difference at elite levels of competition.

讽刺的是,也许发展前沿想法的最佳方式是从基本原理开始。即使你不打算开发创新的想法,理解你领域的第一性原理也是值得投入的时间。如果没有对基础知识的牢固掌握,很难精通那些在顶级竞争中决定成败的细节。

Every innovation, including the most groundbreaking ones, requires a long period of iteration and improvement. The company at the beginning of this article, SpaceX, ran many simulations, made thousands of adjustments, and required multiple trials before they figured out how to build an affordable and reusable rocket.

每一项创新,包括最具突破性的创新,都需要经过长时间的迭代和改进。本文开头提到的公司SpaceX进行了大量的模拟、进行了数千次调整,并经历了多次试验,才最终找出如何建造一种经济且可重复使用的火箭。

First principles thinking does not remove the need for continuous improvement, but it does alter the direction of improvement. Without reasoning by first principles, you spend your time making small improvements to a bicycle rather than a snowmobile. First principles thinking sets you on a different trajectory.

第一性原理思维并不会消除持续改进的必要,但它确实改变了改进的方向。如果不运用第一性原理思维,你可能会花时间对自行车进行小幅改进,而不是开发雪地摩托。第一性原理思维让你走上了不同的发展轨迹。

If you want to enhance an existing process or belief, continuous improvement is a great option. If you want to learn how to think for yourself, reasoning from first principles is one of the best ways to do it.

如果你想提升现有的流程或信念,持续改进是一个很好的方法。如果你想学会独立思考,运用第一性原理思维是其中最有效的方法之一。


翻译来源

First Principles: Elon Musk on the Power of Thinking for Yourself

https://jamesclear.com/first-principles

原文始发于微信公众号(OnionSec):第一性原理:埃隆·马斯克谈独立思考的力量

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